Thursday, June 26, 2008

Real Recession and Statistical Recession

Recent reports of significant declines in auto sales and home sales gave further evidence of an economy in serious trouble. Major department chains are scaling back plans for new store openings and increasing numbers of vacant stores are appearing in shopping malls and strip malls. But the government keeps issuing its own reports telling us that there is no recession. An article in the Wall Street Journal stated that, "Stronger gains in consumption and exports pushed U.S. gross domestic product higher in the first quarter, revised government figures showed, further evidence that the U.S. avoided recession in the early part of the year albeit with anemic growth."

The economy is headed downward regardless of these statistics. Wealth is disappearing as housing prices decline and stock portfolios values decline. The signs are all around us but apparently these things don't count as long as the government is able to produce statistics that say we aren't in a recession. If your basement is flooding, but the government says there are no flood conditions, what are you to believe?


Dana said...

Well,call me an ostrich, but I think much of this is a self-correction of a VERY overinflated economy. A downturn in the economy? Absolutely! A recession? No.

Neil Benson said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Neil Benson said...

We are long past the downturn. Banks that traded for a $100 are as are now trading for $10. If it weren't for the federal government Lehman Brothers would have long since been out of business along with Morgan Stanley and others. I can give you the URLs to the people who predicted this over a year ago. It's like a snowball rolling downhill and the federal government keeps telling us that the snowball is only 6 inches big when it it's already reached 3 feet in diameter. Watch out below!