Thursday, June 25, 2009

The Price of Oil: Problems in Future Predictions

When the price of a barrel of oil went below $40, no one expected it to stay that way. The question was how high the price of a barrel of oil would go once it had bottomed. Now that it is approaching $70 a barrel, all sorts of experts are making predictions about future prices. I am not an expert, but it doesn't take a forty year background in the oil industry to know that in the short and intermediate term the price of oil will go up. The big question is the long-term price of oil, meaning how high will it go.

An article in Fortune states, "there are signs that a demand recovery could be on the way in Asia. China's crude consumption averaged 7.6 million barrels per day in April, according to Alidena the highest level on record, amid reports that the government was stockpiling commodities. Goldman Sachs was confident enough of a demand rebound to come out in early June with a price target of $85 a barrel for West Texas intermediate crude by the end of 2009 and $95 by the end of 2010." There are some, although not many, who predicts that oil will reach a price of $250 a barrel.

As a worldwide recovery begins, the demand for oil will increase. Most experts say that worldwide production of oil is at or near its peak. The problem with long-term predictions is that they don't take into account the secondary effects that high oil prices to create. While the amount of energy produced by wind power is very small at the present time, $100 a barrel oil will have a significant impact on it. Also, the nations of the world know that their economies begin to begin to slow down significantly as the price of oil arises. No one can predict the impact of all the measures taken by the major oral consuming countries as a response to high oil prices. On a recent trip, I continually parked my Toyota Corolla between fleets of SUVs and minivans. When the price of gas goes over three dollars a gallon again, people will seek other options. In fact, the new SUVs are becoming much more fuel-efficient.

The wild cards in the deck in efforts to predict future oil prices are things yet to come and be invented. New wind power generators take up much less room, and people can now have a wind power energy generator put in their backyard for $8,000 to $10,000. With so much money can be made in viable alternative energy production, it is impossible to predict what new inventions will be created the young men and women at MIT and Caltech as well as the large oil companies. For an undefinable period of time the price of oil will be high in the amount of economic pain will be all also be high. But in the long run, those countries that are thriving on the production of will eventually be trying to find a market for unwanted thick black sludge.

Sunday, June 7, 2009

The Dark Shadow of Socialism Descends on America

First, the government took over the banks, and then it took over the automobile companies. A completely socialistic health-care system is next on the agenda for the Obama administration. These people call themselves "progressives" are really socialists bent on destroying the free market system and the American way of life. Only a handful of conservatives led by such people as Newt Gingrich, Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, and the number of others are crying out into the sending darkness that will obliterate America as we know it. Shame on us for letting this happen.

The mistakes made by the Bush administration, compounded by its free spending ways, helped lead to the perilous situation we now face. Yes, there was greed and avarice on Wall Street and elsewhere in America, but the Socialists have been patiently biding their time waiting for an opportunity to force their agenda on the rest of the American people. Freedom of choice will become a dim memory as the government becomes the "Big Brother" telling us what to do. the government will soon dictate energy policies from what we used to produce energy, to the last detail of how we use it in our homes.

The Obamaists believe that the individual citizen cannot make intelligent choices without the aid of the government. This type of thinking dehumanizes Americans and renders them little more than socially programmed robots. In the New America sex education will be mandatory in the schools. The rights of the parents will be ignored as these few who think they know what is best for us will crush us with their paternalistic approach. We will lose once and for all the opportunity to teach alternatives to the so-called theory of evolution. Evolution, as anyone with any common sense knows, is a poorly thought out theory that barely explains the history of this planet. The knowledge of the Bible will be prohibited, and lost, in our public schools.

Salaries are already being set for people in the private sector who work in banks and on Wall Street. Soon, the government will be deciding what everyone should earn, how they should spend what they earn, and what they should spend it on. They'll be telling us what foods to eat, how much to eat, and what time of day to eat. This is a mind-boggling attempt to intrude on every aspect of our daily lives that will crush the last vestiges of freedom in America. Again, shame on us for letting this happen.