The Price of Oil: Problems in Future Predictions

When the price of a barrel of oil went below $40, no one expected it to stay that way. The question was how high the price of a barrel of oil would go once it had bottomed. Now that it is approaching $70 a barrel, all sorts of experts are making predictions about future prices. I am not an expert, but it doesn't take a forty year background in the oil industry to know that in the short and intermediate term the price of oil will go up. The big question is the long-term price of oil, meaning how high will it go.

An article in Fortune states, "there are signs that a demand recovery could be on the way in Asia. China's crude consumption averaged 7.6 million barrels per day in April, according to Alidena the highest level on record, amid reports that the government was stockpiling commodities. Goldman Sachs was confident enough of a demand rebound to come out in early June with a price target of $85 a barrel for West Texas intermediate crude by the end of 2009 and $95 by the end of 2010." There are some, although not many, who predicts that oil will reach a price of $250 a barrel.

As a worldwide recovery begins, the demand for oil will increase. Most experts say that worldwide production of oil is at or near its peak. The problem with long-term predictions is that they don't take into account the secondary effects that high oil prices to create. While the amount of energy produced by wind power is very small at the present time, $100 a barrel oil will have a significant impact on it. Also, the nations of the world know that their economies begin to begin to slow down significantly as the price of oil arises. No one can predict the impact of all the measures taken by the major oral consuming countries as a response to high oil prices. On a recent trip, I continually parked my Toyota Corolla between fleets of SUVs and minivans. When the price of gas goes over three dollars a gallon again, people will seek other options. In fact, the new SUVs are becoming much more fuel-efficient.

The wild cards in the deck in efforts to predict future oil prices are things yet to come and be invented. New wind power generators take up much less room, and people can now have a wind power energy generator put in their backyard for $8,000 to $10,000. With so much money can be made in viable alternative energy production, it is impossible to predict what new inventions will be created the young men and women at MIT and Caltech as well as the large oil companies. For an undefinable period of time the price of oil will be high in the amount of economic pain will be all also be high. But in the long run, those countries that are thriving on the production of will eventually be trying to find a market for unwanted thick black sludge.

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The Dark Shadow of Socialism Descends on America

First, the government took over the banks, and then it took over the automobile companies. A completely socialistic health-care system is next on the agenda for the Obama administration. These people call themselves "progressives" are really socialists bent on destroying the free market system and the American way of life. Only a handful of conservatives led by such people as Newt Gingrich, Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, and the number of others are crying out into the sending darkness that will obliterate America as we know it. Shame on us for letting this happen.

The mistakes made by the Bush administration, compounded by its free spending ways, helped lead to the perilous situation we now face. Yes, there was greed and avarice on Wall Street and elsewhere in America, but the Socialists have been patiently biding their time waiting for an opportunity to force their agenda on the rest of the American people. Freedom of choice will become a dim memory as the government becomes the "Big Brother" telling us what to do. the government will soon dictate energy policies from what we used to produce energy, to the last detail of how we use it in our homes.

The Obamaists believe that the individual citizen cannot make intelligent choices without the aid of the government. This type of thinking dehumanizes Americans and renders them little more than socially programmed robots. In the New America sex education will be mandatory in the schools. The rights of the parents will be ignored as these few who think they know what is best for us will crush us with their paternalistic approach. We will lose once and for all the opportunity to teach alternatives to the so-called theory of evolution. Evolution, as anyone with any common sense knows, is a poorly thought out theory that barely explains the history of this planet. The knowledge of the Bible will be prohibited, and lost, in our public schools.

Salaries are already being set for people in the private sector who work in banks and on Wall Street. Soon, the government will be deciding what everyone should earn, how they should spend what they earn, and what they should spend it on. They'll be telling us what foods to eat, how much to eat, and what time of day to eat. This is a mind-boggling attempt to intrude on every aspect of our daily lives that will crush the last vestiges of freedom in America. Again, shame on us for letting this happen.

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Gingrich, Pelosi, Cheney, and Limbaugh to Star in Remake of Three Musketeers

Havoc Studios announced that its $150 million remake of the classic Alexandra Dumas novel, the three musketeers, will have an all-star cast. Newt Gingrich will play Athos, Dick Cheney will play Aramis, and Rush Limbaugh will play Porthos. The studio was excited that Karl Rove would be the dynamic and exciting young d'Artagnan. Nancy Pelosi will take time off from her duties as speaker of the house to play the important role of Milady de Winter, wife of Athos, reuniting her with her longtime close friend, Newt Gingrich. A major coup for the studio was the casting of Bill Clinton as Cardinal Richelieu. All other members of the cast greeted Clinton's towering presence as the Cardinal with unanimous acclaim.

The Olympic fencing teams from Russia, Poland, and hungry will act as the soldiers for the King and the Cardinal instead of the usual bunch of klutzes who get cut to pieces by the musketeers. This will ensure dynamic and exciting fencing scenes throughout the movie. Gingrich, Cheney, Limbaugh and Rove said they were excited about having the opportunity to clash sabers with Olympic caliber fencers.

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The Impeachable Republican Party Impeaching Republicans

The Republican Party appears to the developing a case of impeachmentitis. While Newt Gingrich fired off a salvo calling for Nancy Pelosi to resign, other efforts by Republicans were underway to impeach elective officials. In this instance, the targets of the impeachment progress were other Republicans. According to the Huffington Post, "One of the members in the spotlight is Assemblyman Anthony Adams, whose alleged indiscretion was simple: the budget he supported called for a statewide vote on raising income and sales taxes and car registration fees. In other words, in the eyes of his fellow party members, he had voted for a tax increase."


Even Governor Schwarzenegger has been the target of a recall effort launched to replace him. However, because of the number of signatures needed to oust the governor there is a likelihood of this happening. This process has left Republican operatives and insiders shaking their head in wonderment. The Huffington Post quoted Karen Henretty, a prominent Republican strategist, as saying, "What's happening with Republicans in California is the very definition of a circular firing scored."

With Republicans losing seats in the Senate, the House of Representatives, and governorships throughout the nation, it would seem the GOP can ill afford to kill off its own. However, it would be foolish to make any assumptions about what the Republicans will do next. Fortunately for the Republican Party, Senator Specter left on his own in a drumroll court-martial wasn't necessary. Sphere: Related Content

Newt Gingrich Shames Nancy Pelosi

In an open letter, Newt Gingrich shamed Nancy Pelosi for her recent statements about the CIA and what she knew about enhanced interrogation techniques. In fact, he stated that she should step down as speaker of the house. A careful reading of newts letter provides insights to his thinking, which indicates that they were politically motivated rather than based on a rational of valuation of facts.

The article is a long piece of torturous and ill thought out logic. Some of the best parts are quoted below and speak for themselves. I have made comments about his statements.

"The person who is number two in line to be commander in chief can't have contempt for the men and women who protect our nation. America can't afford it."

Speaker Pelosi's contempt is for the CIA, not for the men and women in the armed forces. The number of people in this country who have contempt for the CIA numbers in the tens of millions. Newt, if you ever get to be president, and heaven help this nation if you do, it would be a mistake to rely on the CIA to make critical decisions.

"It Isn't about Politics. It's about National Security."

Newt, are you serious? If a politician says anything, by definition it's about politics.

"But Speaker Pelosi did not confine the question to the reliability of memory. Instead, she made the allegation last week that the CIA intentionally misled her - misled Congress - and not just once, but routinely."

Again, Newt are you serious? The CIA has a long tradition of misleading Congress and the American people. Start with the Bay of Pigs and the list would cover several pages. Spying is about deceitfulness and the deceivers frequently forget that there comes a time to tell the truth.
"If Nancy Pelosi believe that water boarding was justified in 2002 - just like Porter Gross, President Bush, Vice President Cheney and CIA Director Tenet - the a policy of selectively using enhanced interrogation techniques in carefully circumscribed ways in order to prevent future attacks - in other word the Bush Administration Policy - is vindicated."

Let's assume that nancy pelosi believe that water boarding was justified in 2002. How Does That Vindicate the Bush Administration Policy? Wrong is wrong, and evil is evil, no matter who supports it. If Nancy Pelosi stated she supported the Inquisition, would that make it right?

"She's made America less secure by sending a signal to the men and women defending our country that they can count on their leaders to defend them."

The Bush administration made America less secure by starting an ill-conceived, and ultimately fruitless, war with Iraq and failing to finish the war in Afghanistan. It's hard to imagine it's all Nancy Pelosi's fault. But a man with Newt Gingrich's insight and intelligence couldn't be wrong.

With the Nations Banks still at risk, the automakers still on the brink of insolvency, and a host of other problems facing this nation, it's good to know that Newt Gingrich stands tall watching out for the good of the American people.

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Salt Lake City Liberals and Gay Marriage

It is a truism to say that we live in changing times. but there are times when the changes are greater than others, and now is clearly one of them. A black man sits in the White House, Wall Street companies that had survived the great depression no longer exist, and Utah is moving toward support for gay marriage. An article in the Washington Post stated that a recent survey showed that 49% of Americans favored gay marriage, an all-time high. Clearly, the winds of time or changing on this issue.

In an article in Slate magazine Christopher Cox wrote the following.

"What's the matter with Utah? The most Republican state in the nation is drifting to the left. In the last few months, Gov. Jon Huntsman, a Republican and a practicing Mormon, has come out in favor of civil unions for gays and repeated his support for
government action on global warming. Meanwhile, the Republican-controlled
state legislature has liberalized Utah's notoriously arcane alcohol laws. The
punishment for this apostasy has been record-high approval ratings—for both governor and legislature."

In 1963 Bob Dylan wrote the following words.

"Come gather 'round people

Wherever you roam

And admit that the waters

Around you have grown

And accept it that soon

You'll be drenched to the bone.

If your time to youIs worth savin'

Then you better start swimmin'

Or you'll sink like a stone

For the times they are a-changin'."

For those of us old enough to remember those days, the words are as appropriate now as they were then. For those of you not familiar with them, think about what is happening in the world. Much of the rancor and verbal confrontation that takes place in the country stems from the fact that enormous social and economic changes are taking place. Ideally, we would have a spirited debate about them, but the nature of these changes are such that core values of life are at stake and the strongest of emotions rise easily to the top.

There are also those that make a living stirring up emotions and anger. I refer you to my last post. The potential changes to the health care system are enormous as are changes in how we produce energy. But I don't think the fundamental nature of the society will change. Obama was very clear when he stated that he didn't want to run automobile companies and he didn't want to run the banks. The problem with resisting, or postponing, change is that when it finally occurs it is greater than what you fought against 10 years ago. The UAW is finding this out the hard way. Many evangelical churches are rethinking what the church's mission should be. Heavy church involvement in politics is often counterproductive.

Lastly, I think many people are simply overwhelmed by the nature of the economic crisis and all the changes that they are currently experiencing and future changes they are told to worry about. While the political pendulum will eventually swing back towards the middle, society always evolves in new directions, even if in a glacial manner. Unlike Michael Fox in the movies, we can't go back to the past.

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